我国上市公司高管过度自信对并购决策的影响——基于国有和民营比较视角的实证研究

文章将高管选聘机制纳入管理者过度自信行为研究中,实证分析了我国国有扣民营两类上市公司高管过度自信行为及其对公司并购决策的影响.结果显示:两类公司高管都存在过度自信行为,对我国上市公司频繁并购有促动作用,并且国有公司高管比民营公司高管更容易过度自信并促发并购行为;高管来源、个人特征、公司规模以及公司治理机制是影响国有和民营上市公司高管过度自信和并购决策行为的主要因素.研究结论对制定科学并购决策、治理盲目并购有重要借鉴意义.     

管理者过度自信、自由现金流与上市公司多元化

本文放宽了传统的公司多元化动机理论的决策者理性假设,从行为金融学和自由现金流视角,以我国沪深两市2007-2010年间的上市公司为样本,研究了管理者过度自信、自由现金流以及两者的交互效应对于上市公司多元化的影响。本文的研究结论表明:管理者过度自信促进了上市公司的多元化;丰富的自由现金流对上市公司多元化有显著的正向影响;当公司自由现金流充裕时,与管理者非过度自信的公司相比,管理者过度自信的公司的多元化水平更高。     

Extending the boundaries of strategic leadership research

This special issue was developed to extend the boundaries of strategic leadership research, to help bridge the micro-macro divide regarding theories of strategic leadership, and to bring together theories that have emerged independently. In this introductory editorial, we provide an overview of the research on strategic leadership and emphasize the need for further integration of research from the organizational behavior, industrial and organizational psychology, organizational economics, behavioral strategy, and strategic management fields. We then introduce and summarize the eleven articles we accepted for this special issue by classifying them into two broad themes: (a) Chief executive officer (CEO) characteristics and (b) the dynamics of interactions among the CEO, the top management team, and the board. Finally, we propose recent theoretical and empirical foci for advancing strategic leadership research and offer a research agenda for future research highlighting several important research questions related to extending the dialogue among scholars across the different leadership and strategy domains.     

CEO-COB prestige distance and change in diversification: Exploring a curvilinear relationship

This study investigates how the prestige distance between a new chief executive officer (CEO) and the chairperson of the board (COB) can influence changes in the firm’s level of diversification. We draw on social comparison theory and activity theory to argue that the prestige distance between a CEO and COB alters the interaction and communication between the two leaders, and accordingly influences the firm’s ability to change its diversification posture. We test our hypotheses on a dataset of 135 firms and find that the prestige distance in CEO-COB dyads has a U-shaped relationship with the change in the firm’s level of diversification. Our results reveal that low CEO-COB prestige distance, and to a lesser extent high CEO-COB prestige distance, creates conditions for greater changes in the firm’s level of diversification. Further, we find that this U-shaped relationship is more pronounced when the CEO-COB dyad has greater age differences and flattens when the dyad shares age similarity.     

Do large firms overly use stock-based incentive compensation?

This study employs the panel threshold model to reexamine the non-monotonic relationship between CEO stock-based compensation and firm earnings across various firm-size conditions. The feasibility of the model is tested using data for US non-financial firms from 1993 to 2005. Our empirical results indicate that while a positive relationship between the CEO stock-based pay and earnings is presented for small-size firms, a negative impact of CEO stock-based compensation on earnings is shown when large-size firms are concerned. Further, the longstanding puzzle of whether the CEO stock-based pay could enhance earnings among earlier studies could be satisfactorily explained by our empirical results.     

Reducing Overconfidence in the Interval Judgments of Experts

Elicitation of expert opinion is important for risk analysis when only limited data are available. Expert opinion is often elicited in the form of subjective confidence intervals; however, these are prone to substantial overconfidence. We investigated the influence of elicitation question format, in particular the number of steps in the elicitation procedure. In a 3‐point elicitation procedure, an expert is asked for a lower limit, upper limit, and best guess, the two limits creating an interval of some assigned confidence level (e.g., 80%). In our 4‐step interval elicitation procedure, experts were also asked for a realistic lower limit, upper limit, and best guess, but no confidence level was assigned; the fourth step was to rate their anticipated confidence in the interval produced. In our three studies, experts made interval predictions of rates of infectious diseases (Study 1, n = 21 and Study 2, n = 24: epidemiologists and public health experts), or marine invertebrate populations (Study 3, n = 34: ecologists and biologists). We combined the results from our studies using meta‐analysis, which found average overconfidence of 11.9%, 95% CI [3.5, 20.3] (a hit rate of 68.1% for 80% intervals)—a substantial decrease in overconfidence compared with previous studies. Studies 2 and 3 suggest that the 4‐step procedure is more likely to reduce overconfidence than the 3‐point procedure (Cohen's d = 0.61, [0.04, 1.18]).     

The emerging CEO agenda

This article identifies and articulates the major challenges facing CEOs of large multinational firms. Analysis of recent surveys and interviews highlights eight challenges: 1. Developing growth avenues, 2. Raising productivity, 3. Competing for talent, 4. Managing diverse risks, 5. Tightening corporate governance, 6. Incorporating sustainability, 7. Creating new innovation models, and 8. Building out new infrastructures. This large and broad set of issues involves new twists on known challenges and the emergence of new challenges. These challenges are demanding because they require new types of non-business expertise, their rules are not yet clear, and they are interdependent. CEOs need to craft an agenda for dealing individually and collectively with these issues.     

为什么CEO解职如此罕见? 一种基于前景理论的解释

基于前景理论和公司行为理论,本研究将商业风险、所有权集中度及CEO解职后的继任来源整合于同一框架。基于中国上市公司数据所进行的大样本实证分析表明,商业风险、CEO与董事长兼任、所有权集中度与CEO解职率正相关,所有权集中度负向调节商业风险对CEO解职关系。但针对CEO解职后不同继任来源的分析显示,这种调节作用尽管在两类CEO解职中仍然得到保持,但其它所考察变量在外部继任型解职中则有着明显不同。这些发现,进一步加深了对高所有权集中度情境下,CEO解职这一极为重要的战略决策过程的理解。     

管理决断权、高管薪酬与企业绩效的实证研究

本文从企业层面上研究了管理决断权对高管薪酬的影响及两者与企业绩效之间的权变关系。论文选取2002-2007年深沪两市上市公司作为研究样本,构建了管理决断权的多指标衡量体系,证明管理决断权对高管薪酬和企业绩效具有重要的决定作用,企业绩效好的情况下高管薪酬与管理决断权的联系更为紧密。同样,在高管理决断权情况下高管薪酬与企业绩效的挂钩更加紧密,但同时企业会面临监管难题。     

多元化、公司业绩与总经理变更

总经理变更是公司内部治理的重要手段,其业绩敏感性受到多种因素的影响,以2002年～2007年沪深两市702家A股上市公司的数据为样本,探讨多元化经营对总经理变更绩效敏感性及其业绩改进效应的影响,为公司经营模式对公司治理效率的影响提供经验证据,利用传统的Logistic回归、边际效应分析以及面板数据随机效应回归对多元化和总经理变更的关系进行研究。实证结果表明,多元化降低了总经理变更的业绩敏感性,多元化公司总经理变更的概率与资产收益率代表的多元化公司业绩变化没有显著的关系,即使在公司业绩下降的条件下,股东替换总经理的动机也弱于集中化公司;多元化公司总经理变更后的资产重组行为规模显著弱于集中化公司,带来的业绩改进也小于集中化公司。